POINT97AMC
Updated POINT97AMC
Updated NIFTY fell 0.54% on the day and is 2.75% lower over 20 days, below its short and medium term averages. Smaller companies are weaker still, with midcap and smallcap indices down about 7.7% over 20 days. Foreign investors kept selling while domestic funds kept buying. Only IT and the banks are holding up. We are about 95% in a liquid fund, and that cash is the main reason we are about 1.96% ahead of NIFTY since we started. Today we are selling ABB and IREDA because both broke below the support we bought them on, and we are keeping the other six holdings. Next we watch CGPOWER's results on 23 October and whether the market can steady itself.
The portfolio fell 0.01% in the last session while NIFTY 50 fell 0.54%, helped by SBIN (+0.007% of the portfolio, stock +0.62%), EICHERMOT (+0.003% of the portfolio, stock +0.72%), and held back by GICRE (-0.02% of the portfolio, stock -3.47%), ABB (-0.010% of the portfolio, stock -1.46%), HINDALCO (-0.005% of the portfolio, stock -0.72%). Cash in LIQUIDCASE added +0.02% and trading charges cost 0.002%.
| Holding | Intraday move |
|---|---|
| EICHERMOT | +0.72% |
| SBIN | +0.62% |
| GRASIM | -0.42% |
| CGPOWER | -0.49% |
| HINDALCO | -0.72% |
| IREDA | -0.97% |
| ABB | -1.46% |
| GICRE | -3.47% |
Entry and exit prices are rounded and averaged over every buy and sell of the stock. Gain since we bought and gain / loss: the price change from our average entry, before charges. Intraday move: each stock over the session (from our buy price for a stock bought that day).
The market has been falling. NIFTY 50 is down 2.75% over the past month and mid and small companies have fallen about 7.7%. Foreign investors have been selling heavily, local funds have been buying, and market nervousness has risen sharply. Shares are cheaper than a year ago, but that alone is not a reason to buy.
Manufacturing shares have been falling and ABB has fallen more than its sector. The backdrop is working against it.
Manufacturing shares have fallen about 7% in the past month and are doing worse than the overall market. CGPOWER has fallen along with them, so the sector is not helping.
Auto shares have fallen about 7.7% in the past month and foreign investors have been selling the sector. EICHERMOT has held up better than most of its peers, but the sector is still a drag.
The financial sector is weak and has seen steady selling by foreign investors. GICRE has also done worse than its sector, so the backdrop does not help.
The index that covers cement and infrastructure is close to its lowest level of the year, and foreign investors have been selling cement shares. A weak cement result reported today adds to the caution.
Metal shares have dropped more than 9% in the past month, a sharper fall than the overall market. HINDALCO has moved with its sector, so the backdrop is a drag.
The financial sector has been falling and foreign investors have been pulling money out of it. IREDA has fallen even more than its sector, so the backdrop works against it.
Government-owned banks have held up much better than the overall market over the past one to three months. That is a mild help for SBIN, even though foreign investors have been selling financial shares.
Tailwind: the sector and the market support the position. Headwind: they work against it. Neutral: mixed.
We own SBIN because it held a well-tested floor and buyers have been stronger than sellers. It is a little above our cost and rose on a down day for NIFTY. We would exit if it fell back through that floor.
We bought EICHERMOT as it held a higher low inside its recent range, backed by record monthly sales. It closed slightly above our price on its first day. We would exit if it broke below its October low.
We bought EICHERMOT today and nothing new has happened since. The price is still weak, so we are not buying more.
We already added to SBIN in the last two days and have seen nothing new since. We will wait for a stronger sign before buying more.
None